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Bellwether trials are like “test” cases used is big mass torts such as class action MDLs involving hundreds or even thousands of individual plaintiffs. To understand what a bellwether trial is, you need to understand how modern mass tort litigation works.
Understanding Mass Torts
In mass tort litigation, there is a very large group of plaintiffs (anywhere from a few dozen to a few thousand) all of whom have filed lawsuits involving identical tort claims. The most common example is in the pharmaceutical context where thousands of people are injured by a defective drug (e.g., Ozempic) and they all file identical lawsuits around the same time.
Mass torts usually involve just one or a small group of related defendants. Litigating all of these hundreds or thousands of identical lawsuits separately would overwhelm both the defendants and the court system. To alleviate this burden, the cases are consolidated together into a multi-district litigation (MDL), which is similar to a class action.
How Bellwether Trials Work
The term “bellwether” comes from medieval England when shepherds placed bells on the castrated ram in the flock (a “wether”) who the flock followed while grazing. The bell around the “wether” enabled shepherds to keep track of the flock by sound. From that original use, the term bellwether is now used to describe people who influence others to follow.
When you have a mass tort involving hundreds or thousands of individual cases, it simply is not physically possible for each of these cases to go to trial. But the defendants have a right to take the cases to trial and have the issues decided by a jury. The solution is the bellwether trial system.
Since not every case can go to trial, a handful of sample cases a selected out of the thousands of pending cases in the MDL. These cases are intended to be representative of all the other cases in the litigation. Jury trials are then held in this select group of cases. These trials are referred to as the “bellwether” trials.
The results of the bellwether trials give both parties in the litigation a good sample of what they could reasonably expect if all of the other cases went to trial. The sample results from the bellwether trials are then used by lawyers for both sides to help facilitate and shape settlement negotiations.
How Are Cases Selected for Bellwether Trials?
A typical mass tort MDL involves anywhere from 200 to 5,000 plaintiffs, but some MDLs can get even bigger. Regardless of size, only a very small handful of cases will be picked out for bellwether trials. The exact number of bellwether trials is up to the MDL judge and usually depends on the overall size of the litigation and the nature of the cases. The general idea is to continue with bellwether trials until a global settlement is reached.
The process of picking a few “sample” cases out of a group of thousands can be very complicated. Ultimately, the MDL judge sets the process for selecting bellwether cases based on certain rules and guidelines set by the Judicial Panel on Multidistrict Litigation.
The selection process usually starts with picking an initial pool of cases to serve as candidates for bellwether trials. The size of this initial pool ranges from 10 to 100. This initial pool of candidate cases can be selected randomly by a computer based on certain fact criteria set by the MDL judge. The goal is to get a good representative sampling of cases that is fair to both sides.
Picking the Final Bellwether Cases for Trial
Once the pool of candidate cases go are prepared for trial, a handful of cases out of the group must be picked to actually go to trial. The process of picking the final trial cases almost always involves some system where the plaintiffs and defendants each get to handpick an equal number of cases (e.g., each side picks two cases). The plaintiffs will pick out cases that are most favorable to them and the defense will pick out cases where they have the best chance of winning. Sometimes the MDL judge will also get involved in the selection of bellwether cases.
- The judge
- The lawyers
- Randomly
- The lawyers AND the judge
Why Do Bellwether Trials Often Help Get Cases Settled?
Cases do not settle for one primary reason: the parties disagree on the value of the claims. The goal of bellwether trials is to give both plaintiffs and defendants a dose of real reality in terms of who is likely to win the case and the amount of damages a jury might award. So the idea of these test balloon trials is to gauge how real juries will decide these cases. Both parties tend to think their side will prevail or that the damages will come out their way.
So the cases picked are a big deal. How bellwether trials are selected has everything to do with the outcome for the entire class, particularly when the number of trials before settlement is small.
Will My Case Be One of the Bellwether Cases?
Statistically, your case is unlikely to be one of the bellwether cases that go to trial. Typically, only a small number of cases are selected so the odds against an individual plaintiff being chosen is low.
When you file your case in an MDL, you are basically putting your name into a bellwether trial lottery pool. Theoretically, your case has the same statistical odds of being selected for a bellwether trial as all the other cases in the MDL. The only thing you can really do to maximize your odds of being selected for a bellwether trial is to make sure that you actively participate in your case and promptly respond to all information requests from your lawyer.
Being a bellwether case is a mixed bag. It certainly gives you the best chance to hit a home run and get full value for your case, an outcome that generally eludes plaintiffs that settle in a class. But there is also the risk of losing the case and getting nothing. Being the bellwether case is high risk and high reward.
One thing that is particularly important to do if you want to increase your odds of being a bellwether plaintiff is to fully and timely complete your plaintiff fact questionnaire for the litigation. Your case will not even be eligible for bellwether selection unless the questionnaire form is completed.
What Happens After Bellwether Trials?
After bellwether trials conclude, their outcomes play a huge role in shaping the future of the mass tort litigation. These trials serve as a test to gauge how juries are likely to respond to the key issues in the case. Of course, the verdict numbers are extremely important.
If the bellwether trials result in favorable verdicts for plaintiffs, it puts real pressure on defendants to enter settlement negotiations. Because now they cannot no longer fool themselves as to how juries will value the lawsuits. On the other hand, if the defense prevails, it weakens plaintiffs’ leverage in settlement discussions, sometimes dramatically.
The results of the bellwether trials help both sides better understand the value of the remaining lawsuits in the MDL. Based on the trial outcomes, parties will often engage in settlement talks to resolve the remaining lawsuits collectively, aiming to avoid the time and expense of trying every individual case. In many cases, successful bellwether trials will lead to a global settlement, where the defendant agrees to a lump sum payment that is distributed among the plaintiffs according to the severity of their injuries.
However, if the bellwether trials do not lead to a settlement, the remaining cases in the MDL may proceed to trial, either individually or in waves. This can prolong the litigation process, but the results of additional trials can continue to shape the eventual resolution.
Frequently Asked Questions About Bellwether Trials
What are the chances of my case being selected as a bellwether trial?
The chances of your case being selected for a bellwether trial are relatively low. In most mass tort MDLs, only a small number of cases—usually between one and five—are chosen as bellwether trials out of potentially thousands of cases. The selection process aims to pick representative cases, but statistically, most plaintiffs will not get anywhere close to a trial.
How long do bellwether trials typically take?
Bellwether trials will vary in length. The big variable is the complexity of the case. On average, they can take several weeks to a few months to complete, from jury selection to a final verdict. However, the entire process, including pretrial discovery and motions, can take much longer—often over a year—before the actual trial begins.
If a bellwether trial is successful, will I receive a settlement immediately?
It does not really work that way, unfortunately. The outcome of a bellwether trial helps guide settlement discussions. But it is just one piece of the puzzle. Successful bellwether trials often encourage the defendants to settle the remaining cases, but settlement negotiations don’t necessarily happen right away.
Can I still receive compensation if my case isn’t chosen as a bellwether trial?
Of course. Most plaintiffs in MDLs will not have their case selected for a bellwether trial. But that does not mean they will not receive compensation. Bellwether trials help establish a framework for settlements, and many cases are settled outside of court based on the results of these test cases. Settlements often follow once both sides have a better understanding of the potential outcomes from the bellwether trials.
Getting Help with Your Tort Claim
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